Mike

By AIF Staff

Aspen, CO – This morning, live from the Aspen Economic Strategy Group meeting, Paul Ryan was interviewed on CNBC’s Squawk Box about the Trump Administration’s economic policies and the impact they are having on markets at home and abroad. In conversation with CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin, Ryan touched on the ongoing tariff fights, the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tame inflation, the future of Social Security, and more.

Watch the full interview here or read excerpts of Ryan’s responses below.

On the state of the U.S. economy:

“I think we’re driving the car with two feet. One foot on the gas. One foot on the brake.

On the gas, we have good tax policy that is pro-growth. We have regulatory relief that is coming, and we have this AI boom that will be great for productivity. And on the brake, we have tariff uncertainty and a debt crisis on the horizon which is going to mess with interest rates. I think all of that combustible mixture is giving people cause for concern.

The latest jobs numbers weren’t so good, so that’s what we’re talking about here. The whole point of this conference is what do you do to revive American prosperity and continue it, so there’s definitely a tariff discussion happening right now.” 

On the road ahead for the Administration’s tariff policy:

“I think [the tariffs] are the biggest deal out there right now. It’s the uncertainty….I think the market thinks that everything will be calm soon and I just don’t see that. They think the tariffs will settle into an easy and predictable place and I don’t think that’s going to happen. 

Why do I think that? Because it’s more than likely that Supreme Court will knock out IEPA, the law that is being used to justify tariffs but that doesn’t have the word “tariff” in it, and then the President is going to have to go to other laws to justify tariffs – Section 232, 201, 301 – and those are harder laws to operate with, so they’re dual tracking the tariffs now. But so, you have these trade agreements – I spent a lot of time on these trade agreements, it was one of my jobs in Congress on the Ways and Means Committee – and they could be a little upended if he loses in court and then he will have to revive the tariffs.

They justify tariffs based on trade deficits. I don’t think that’s the right way to go, but then we threw a 50% tariff on Brazil, and we have a trade surplus with Brazil, so there’s no rationale for this other than the President wanting to raise tariffs based on his whims and his opinions.

So, I think there are choppy waters ahead because I think the Administration is going to have some legal challenges and I think it’s going to be a while before it settles in….

I think tariffs are the wrong way to go. It makes you unproductive. It lowers living standards and is bad for our industries, long-term. It is good short-term politics, but bad long-term economics…. I do think we’re going to have tariffs for a while and I think the government is going to see this revenue, and with the deficits we have, it’s going to be hard [for a future President to turn them off.”

On the Federal Reserve and possible successors to Chairman Powell:

“I think the Kevin’s are great…. I think the people that President Trump is considering are qualified people and they all would be good Federal Reserve Chairs….

[The Federal Reserve] should be lowering interest rates. We are going into an interest-rate cutting environment…. I think the tariff uncertainty is still a thing, and I think it’s wise to wait for that, but with the latest labor market activity, I think September is the right time [to lower rates]…

My point is: We have an independent Federal Reserve. We have a Humphrey-Hawkins law that I have spent a lot of time on that makes an independent Fed. The President is going to do what he is going to do, and we’re still going to have an independent Fed. I am not worried about that changing, because that law is not going to change. It takes 60 votes in the Senate and that’s not going to happen.

All these people that they’re looking at for Federal Reserve Chair are qualified people. Plus, if we were going into an interest-rate increasing environment and we were in this posture, I would be worried. But we’re going into an interest-rate cutting environment anyway, so I’m not worried about the Fed’s independence ultimately being threatened.”

On the changes at BLS:

“It’s more than an eye-rolling exercise. I googled Bill Beach. Bill Beach has, for Republicans, impeccable, conservative economic credentials. He was Trump’s 1^st BLS Administrator, and he said this is absolutely groundless, so I would look at what Bill Beach said. I would look at what Trump’s first BLS Administrator said and echo his sentiments.

I think the story goes away if they replace her with a legitimate person. If they put a political hack in there, then this will be really troubling, but if they put someone in there who is qualified, it probably goes away.  It was a norm breaking episode, and we have a lot of those these days.”

On possible debanking of conservatives:

“If it’s true, it is absolutely outrageous. They ought to be able to fix this through regulations so this doesn’t happen. If you are debanking someone based on their political beliefs, that is totally outrageous. I don’t know to what extent that it is happening, but if it is, that’s outrageous…. This ought to be settled pretty easily through clear regulations.”

On Secretary Bessent’s comments on Social Security:

“I spent a lot of time on this issue. You still need Social Security… Social Security is insolvent in 2032. There is a big problem of a 26% across-the-board benefit cut when that occurs. We need to get ahead of that, and the best way to do that is to grow. My kids are going to get a -1% rate of return on their Social Security taxes, so we ought to be able to reform the program so they get a better rate of return. These bonds won’t be enough to replace that but we should reform the program so it gets better returns for future retirees and do so in a package that actually saves Social Security from insolvency.”

By: AIF Staff

JANESVILLE, WI – This morning, former Speaker of the House and American Idea Foundation President Paul Ryan announced 7 community organizations will receive grant funding and strategic support in 2025 to advance data-driven solutions aimed at reducing poverty and promoting upward mobility. 

Since 2022, the American Idea Foundation has issued annual grants to non-profit groups that are scaling and deepening their use of evidence to address problems like homelessness, childhood health, addiction, education and vocational training. Throughout the year, Ryan and his Foundation will visit these organizations, offer advice, share policy expertise, and partner with them in furtherance of their amazing work. 

In announcing the American Idea Foundation’s 2025 grant recipients, Paul Ryan said:  

“I recently spent a day with two of the Foundation’s past grant recipients: NPower and Per Scholas, meeting their students, learning from their leaders, and understanding the transformative impact they have in their communities. We brought together employers, practitioners, and legislators – all of whom want to create more economic opportunities and upward mobility. It was inspiring. It showed the importance of fostering these synergies, and it filled me with excitement about working with our 2025 grant recipients. 

The 2025 grant recipients are at the forefront of scaling evidence-based solutions to America’s toughest challenges. They are helping the most vulnerable among us and doing it in ways that are supported by data. By combining the dedication of these front-line organizations with the know-how of academic researchers and policymakers, I am confident America can move the needle when it comes to alleviating poverty. It is an honor to help these deserving groups.”

The 2025 American Idea Foundation grant recipients are….

• ASSISTments
• Care Portal 
• Catholic Charities of Fort Worth 
• College Possible 
• Family Promise of Wisconsin 
• Saga Education
• Triple P – Positive Parenting Program

Started by Ryan in October 2019, the American Idea Foundation believes by taking the politics out of poverty-fighting and focusing on outcomes and results, successful programs can be scaled, elevated, and replicated. The Foundation believes this approach – prioritizing what works and validating these interventions with evidence – will provide policymakers with a better blueprint to address the challenges facing individuals and communities across the United States. 

Past recipients of grant funding from the American Idea Foundation include: ACE-CUNY, Downtown Boxing Gym, Family Promise of West Michigan, Found Village, Future Forward, I.C.Stars, NPower, Safe Families for Children, Gatekeepers, Corner to Corner, Child First, Merit America, The Joseph Project, Bernie’s Book Bank,  Bottom Line, Brigid’s Path, Friends of the Children, Per Scholas, Wisconsin Inmate Education Association, and the Women’s Bean Project. 

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By: AIF Staff

Simi Valley, CA – Last week,, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, CA, former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan joined the Reagan National Economic Forum for a day-long conference on how policymakers, innovators, and entrepreneurs can channel the legacy of Ronald Reagan to meet our fiscal and economic challenges.

As part of the Forum, Ryan participated in a panel discussion on the moral imperative of economic growth. He was accompanied on stage by Larry Kudlow of Fox Business, former Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender, and former Securities and Exchange Commissioner Mark Uyeda.

To watch the panel discussion, click here. Excerpts from former Speaker Ryan’s remarks, edited lightly for clarity, follow.

Ryan: Next generation of supply-siders must continue Reagan’s prosperous legacy

“Ronald Reagan brought a new economic philosophy to government. Ronald Reagan brought the supply side school of thought to government. Ronald Reagan put this on his back and made it law and the prosperity that ensued after the Carter years was really unprecedented.

And the intellectual fathers of this movement were Larry Kudlow, Bob Bartley, George Gilder, Jude Wanninski, Paul Craig Roberts, and a whole bunch of other first-generation supply-siders who Ronald Reagan grabbed, and they got this [economic doctrine] over the finish line with his partner in Congress, Jack Kemp, and they did it.

I was a staffer for Jack Kemp. We learned under you guys, and we became supply-siders 2.0. The 1^st generation supply-siders were about sound money, and tax rates were as high as 92% in this country, so they did Kemp-Roth tax cuts, then they did TEFRA, and brought it down. Then, the 2^nd generation supply-siders…. extended the supply-side mantra from not just monetary policy and tax policy, but to regulatory policy and educational policy, like school choice, and that fueled our movement for a while. It fueled the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

I would say, to bookend today, we are probably due a 3^rd generation wave of reforms for a 3^rd generation of supply-side economics. I think you saw a little bit of that today at lunch with Marc Andreesen and Joe Lonsdale with all this amazing technology that’s coming.

So hopefully, we can be inspired by our forefathers like Ronald Reagan, the 1^st generation supply-siders, and the 2^nd generation supply-siders who are around, to come up with a new, additive movement with pro-growth economics and the moral imperative that comes with it to meet this moment with growth and opportunity as we have in the past and be inspired by the Reagan example.”

Ryan: Benefits of a growing economy extend and improve our politics and our culture

“In a growing environment, the politics and culture that come from pro-growth economics is a positive sum game. It’s win-win. We strive for equality of opportunity, not equality of outcome in people’s lives  Your politics are better. It is not “one side wins and one side loses.” It is positive sum, an additive game, and the populism that comes from that kind of movement is positive. We are happy about other people’s success. We don’t want a class-based society. We want a society punctuated by upward mobility.

If you don’t have that, you are going to go into a darker, populist, zero-sum game kind of thinking and that would be the antithesis of the Reagan economic miracle that hopefully we are in the midst of renewing today.”

Ryan: Trump Administration should pull on 3 economic growth levers: Tax Policy, Deregulation, Certainty on trade

“We have got two great growth levers that this Administration is pulling on right now: Get this tax bill done, add some growth functions to it like boosting up expensing for plants, equipment, and new builds, but this deregulation is also really important.

Quantifiably, the deregulation [agenda] is almost as good as this supply-side tax policy. What deregulation gets you is a business climate that gives you more certainty so you can take risks and start businesses. This gives you more productivity, and that gets you more take-home pay.

In the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, one of the key things that we were trying to achieve was to boost productivity in the economy because we know that boosts take-home pay. Real wages went up. Living standards went up and the two lowest quintile earners had the fastest real-income wage growth until COVID-19 hit.

I hope the trade fight is the Larry Kudlow plan like it was in Trump 1.0 which is: Get to these reciprocal agreements. I understand there’s a lot of blustering and negotiating, but if the goal of this is to get these reciprocal agreements with our allies where we are lowering barriers and then we have our China fight, which we all agree on, then we will have reduced that [tariff] uncertainty which, right now, is plaguing the economy.

So hopefully, we can pull three levers which are deregulate the economy, certainty on tax policy that is pro-growth, and then get to these reciprocal trade agreements that open markets for American workers and American businesses. If we do that, we will have a really good growth picture.

My hope is then, after we have this pro-growth fiscal policy, the Federal Reserve has a little more certainty. They start calming rates down and we can start working on the long-term debt driven by entitlements which, to me, would be the capstone of an extremely successful Administration on economic policy.”

For more on Speaker Ryan’s thoughts on Ronald Reagan, his legacy, and how it informs modern policymakers, check out his interviews with Guy Benson and Larry Kudlow from the Reagan Library.