Validating Reforms that Expand Opportunity

By: AIF Staff

On February 22^nd, former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan will be a featured guest at UW-Madison’s La Follette School as part of the University’s Policymaker in Residence program. Ryan, who represented Southern Wisconsin for two decades in the House of Representatives, will talk with the UW community about ongoing fiscal fights in Congress, the increasing polarization in American politics, and his recently released book, American Renewal: A Conservative Plan to Strengthen the Social Contract and Save the Country’s Finances.

Previewing his remarks in Madison, Ryan spoke exclusively with WKOW’s A.J. Bayatpour in an interview that aired on Capital City Sunday. Excerpts of the interview follow and video of the conversation are accessible here.  

On visiting UW-Madison & talking to young Americans about our fiscal challenges:

“I represented Southern Wisconsin for 20 years in Congress and have been visiting Madison on and off for my entire life, but also throughout my career. I’m speaking at the La Follette [School] and my main message is going to be the subject that I’ve been working on through this book from the American Enterprise Institute, which is: How do we make the 21st century a great century for all Americans? How do we avoid a debt crisis? How do we restructure our social safety net and our social contract and get our economy growing with all the big challenges we have in our future?

“It’s really more of a public policy address and I just like talking to young people [about these issues]. I teach Economics at the University of Notre Dame today, and that’s [part of] what I do now among other things and I just love engaging with young people about their future and the big policy challenges and choices they have in front of them.”

On a possible Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling deal:

“Senate Republicans don’t have the majority and therefore, they’re not in the driver’s seat. They’re not in a position to basically determine what comes to the floor and what doesn’t. So yes, it should be the House Republicans taking the lead because they are the only Republican majority that we have.

“And by the way, it’s very common for things to be attached to debt ceilings. I was on the Bowles-Simpson Commission in the middle 2000s, which was [created as] a result of negotiations on the debt limit. I also helped write the Budget Control Act, which again was because of the debt limit negotiation and that put spending controls and caps in place. So, it is very common.

“I did two of these deals with President Obama himself when Joe Biden was Vice President, which were a result of these [types of] negotiations. So yes, House Republicans should lead and yes, it is very typical to try and put some kind of fiscal reforms in place while you deal with a deadline.”

On McCarthy’s ability to navigate a thin majority & a push for fiscal common sense:

“It’s a razor thin majority and it’s going to be very hard for my successor, Kevin McCarthy, to get everyone on board and thinking that every move he makes is the right move. It’s almost impossible with a five-seat margin.

“The question is: Can he get good fiscal reforms and can you get President Biden to engage? I don’t know the answer that question, but it’s definitely worth the effort.

“What I like about this situation is the fact that Republicans are raising the issue that we have a debt crisis in our future, that really important programs like Medicare Social Security are going bankrupt this decade or the next decade, and that we ought to do something about it. It’s good to raise these issues.

“[Speaker McCarthy] should try to get some things done. Is he going to keep the caucus or the conference unified this entire time? It’s hard to do and I don’t necessarily see that happening. But [the debt ceiling] is going to be a bipartisan agreement at the end of the day anyway, because you have a Democratic Senate and a Democratic president, so whatever happens will be bipartisan and it will get bipartisan votes because it has to get bipartisan votes.”

On how a debt ceiling standoff might impact the markets:

“We had this happen in 2011. It was very temporary. I do not think we will default on our debt. I think the Department of the Treasury will make sure that they prioritize the spending so there is never a debt default.

“Frankly, I know there’s going be a lot of fireworks, a lot of hysteria, but at the end of the day and I’ve been through a few of these myself, I really do not think we will default on our debt. And I think it’s important that we make it crystal clear that the full faith and credit of the US government and the US Treasury are sacrosanct.  I think you’re going to have a lot of hysterics surrounding that, but that’s what democracy is like. This is what governing is like, especially with divided government between two different parties, so I expect this time to be no different.

“It may be a little closer to the wire than probably other episodes but again, the goal here is to try and bring some fiscal sanity. If we weren’t heading toward a debt crisis like we are in this country, I don’t think you’d have all of these fireworks but we are heading toward a debt crisis and something does need to be done and it’s going to take more than just this episode over the debt limit but at least that conversation is getting started. To me that’s a good thing.

On the biggest threats to the United States at present:

“I’d say three things: 1) The debt crisis in the future. 2) The challenge from China and the race towards superior technology in areas like quantum computing. And 3) Our labor market problems which are a long-term economic problem but it’s [due, in part, to] our immigration laws.

“We’ve got to fix our immigration laws once and for all. We’ve got to prevent a debt crisis. And we’ve got to rise to the challenge on behalf of freedom and democracy against the tyranny from China.

“I think those are the three really big challenges for America. There are many other issues, but those are the big existential challenges: Get our immigration laws fixed, prevent a debt crisis, and rise to the challenge with the threat posed by China.”

On whether Social Security becoming discretionary spending will be part of a debt ceiling increase

“I don’t think it will. Joe Biden supported that in his early days. Many of us have supported that proposal. I don’t think that that’s going to happen. I think it’s Senator Scott from Florida’s proposal. I don’t think that’s the way to go. I think there are better things to do to get Social Security shored up short of doing that.”

On getting ahead of Social Security and Medicare’s looming insolvency:

“Let’s be really clear: Social Security goes bankrupt in 2033 which means there’s a 23% across the board benefit cut if we don’t do anything before that. And the Medicare Trust Fund goes bankrupt in 2028. Doing nothing means you’re complicit with the bankruptcy of these critical programs.

“What we propose in this book at the American Enterprise Institute is to shore these programs up. And here’s the good news: It’s sort of a stitch in time saves nine. If you reform these programs early, you can do it in such a way that it doesn’t change anything for people in and near retirement. And for those of us in the X generation who will not have solvent programs when we retire, you can make them whole.

“What we argue in this book and what I spend my time on here at the American Enterprise Institute is we believe in the social contract. We, Republicans and Democrats, the center-right and center-left believe that we should have health and retirement security for all Americans and that we should have a safety net to make sure people — like those who cannot help themselves because of some disability — are taken care of and brought back up on their feet. We want to revive the system of upper mobility and save that social contract because the social safety net programs are really important parts of American life. And I believe that there is a durable political consensus among Republicans and Democrats that we need to maintain that.

“The problem is that these programs were written in the 20th century in ways that are proving unsustainable in the 21st century. The sooner we start realizing this and having sober conversations about that and stop demagoguing the issue, the better off we’re going to be. The point is, doing nothing is a really bad idea because that means they go bankrupt and current seniors get hurt. So, by getting ahead of that problem and solving it for future generations means you can guarantee the social contract for the existing generation and that’s going to compound it. By the way, the government made these promises to the America people and they need to be honored, but they won’t be if we don’t do something. That’s the point I’m trying to make.”

On how to achieve a bipartisan consensus on immigration reform & why it matters:

“I tried three different times in my career to get an agreement on this issue. It’s probably, next to entitlement reform, one of the most vexing political issues of our time. Your question is the answer which is both sides have to give something to get something done. You need to have border security and crackdown on unlawful immigration, along with the kinds of critical reforms for legal immigration that ultimately make our system work.

“Our nation’s gross domestic product and our growth rate is basically cut in half in the 21st century versus the rate we grew at in the 20th century because of labor force participation. After the Baby Boomers, we don’t have as many people because our birth rates have declined and so, legal immigration is going to be a critical part of getting the American economy to grow and produce the type of opportunities and jobs that we used to know in the 20th century.

“I think we can do this, but it does mean both sides coming together and addressing each other’s concerns, which by the way, are both legitimate concerns, in my opinion.

“The problem is getting the politics right. It takes a president who is willing to put a lot of political capital on the line to do it and I just don’t frankly see it right now if Joe Biden runs for reelection. I personally wish he would not run for re-election so that he could get an immigration deal and put a lot of political capital on the table to get a deal that secures the border, cracks down on unlawful immigration, and also fixes the broken illegal immigration system so that we have a system that is working well.

“I think there’s a vote coalition in Congress there to get it done but it takes a lot of leadership, particularly from the White House, and I just haven’t seen that.”

On issues he regrets not tackling during the Speakership:

“There are too many, that list would be too long. The two issues that got away from me and that I wanted to see progress made on was, like I said, entitlement reform. I passed a budget with entitlement reforms four years in a row out of the House during my career but it didn’t get to the Senate and the White House.

“And immigration reform. I was a part of three different separate efforts to fix our immigration laws. In my farewell speech to Congress as the Speaker of the House, those are the two things I mentioned then and that’s what I’ll mention to you today. Those are the two policy things we have to get done….

“My hope and goal is that we can depolarize our politics to the point where we can get back to rational policy conversations to fix these problems. And by the way, if we do, we’re going to have one awesome century in America and we will yet again lead the free world in peace and prosperity. If we can solve our own domestic problems, we can really set a tempo and example for the rest of the world and show them what a great American 21st century looks like.”

To learn more about Ryan’s book, check out his recent op-ed in the Wall Street Journal.

By: AIF Staff

This week, along with 17 scholars, Paul Ryan and Angela Rachidi published American Renewal: A Plan to Strengthen the Social Contract and Save the Country’s Finances. The book contains a comprehensive set of policy solutions to stabilize our debt, modernize our social safety net, revitalize our economy, and restore the promise of upward mobility. The authors believe that by applying conservative principles to our nation’s major fiscal and economic challenges, we can write the next great chapter in American history.

Former Speaker Ryan did a series of interviews and engagements to discuss the aims and objectives of the policies detailed in the book. A brief recap follows.

American Renewal is available for download here.

Video: Paul Ryan discusses new book with ABC News

In an exclusive interview with ABC’s Jon Karl on This Week with George Stephanopoulos, former Speaker Paul Ryan talks about the importance of the policy proposals contained in his new book.

Ryan said in part: “The purpose of putting out this book is to offer a conservative plan to help this country get over its enormous challenges in the 21st century. We have an unsustainable debt. We’re on an unsustainable debt trajectory…. But we’re going to have to make these programs work better. We’re going to have to reform these programs so you and I and the X Generation and generations on down actually have something. That’s the kind of conversation we have to elevate our debate to in our federal and national politics. I think we can because America has always gotten it right at the end of the process, but it has to go through a lot of political machinations.”

Speech: Launching a New Conservative Policy Book with Paul Ryan and Angela Rachidi

With our mediating institutions fraying, debt soaring, and inflation rising in the post-pandemic era, now is the time for policymakers to act—to renew the social contract and place our government programs on strong fiscal footing. Ryan and Rachidi’s book offers policymakers a sweeping set of proposals to ensure long-term prosperity and fiscal health. After offering an overview of the project’s motivation, Ryan and Rachidi are joined by AEI’s Robert Doar to discuss the volume’s proposals in greater depth.

Op-Ed: Wall Street Journal: A Plan to Save our Nation’s Finances

The federal government is making promises to citizens that it can’t keep. The social contract to help the neediest is at risk, as is the implicit promise of the American dream—that each generation will have the chance to do better than the previous one.

The bad news is that our politics are fundamentally unserious. The good news is that a fiscal crisis is still avoidable. But the window of opportunity to prevent it is closing. We are not powerless. Holding off catastrophe is a matter of summoning the will. In “American Renewal: A Conservative Plan to Strengthen the Social Contract and Save the Country’s Finances,” Angela Rachidi and I, along with 18 center-right scholars, outline how leaders can couple reforms to our social safety net with economic growth.

Interviews: In conversations with reporters, Ryan discussed the book and the news of the day. Among the interview highlights….

ABC News: Ryan once again charts his path forward for GOP

[Ryan] said he’s not done trying to find solutions to America’s problems. He’s out with a new book: “American Renewal: A Conservative Plan to Strengthen the Social Contract and Save the Country’s Finances.”

“In this book, we offer very granular solutions to the big problems confronting America,” Ryan said. One of his major concerns, he said, is what he called the unsustainable debt trajectory that America is on. He said his book offers “a conservative plan to help this country get over its enormous challenges.”

Ryan acknowledged that Americans want health and retirement security, but he believes the current programs are unsustainable in the 21st century. “Medicare trust fund goes bankrupt in this decade,” Ryan said. “The Social Security trust fund goes bankrupt in 2032.”

But Ryan, the self-proclaimed optimist, believes these problems are solvable. “There are changes that you can make to the Social Security system today that [guarantees] people counting on this program will always have those benefits,” he said. “We’re going to have to reform these programs so that you and I and the next generation on down actually have something. That’s the kind of conversation we have to elevate our debate to I think in our federal, national politics, and I think we can because America has always gotten it right at the end of the process.”

The Dispatch: A Conversation with former Speaker Paul Ryan

Ryan: The point of the book is to help raise the level of debate to get America to confront its big policy challenges, so we can have another great American century. If we’re going to be able to compete with the likes of China, and if we’re going to be able to fulfill the legacy of leaving the next generation better off, then we’ve got some serious internal challenges that we have to overcome to make good on this promise. And that should be measured against the fact that if we do nothing, we will walk ourselves into a debt crisis, under which you’ll then have to commit to really ugly austerity economics.

Hugh Hewitt: Hugh talks with former Speaker Paul Ryan about AEI’s new book, American Renewal

Ryan: What we’re trying to do with American Renewal is make it a “call to arms” for conservatives to get ahead of the fiscal and economic challenges in this country. And thank God we have the House so we can start putting our feet in the right direction… First of all, in the House, you can stop bad ideas from making it into law like Build Back Better and that’s a good accomplishment because it’s going to be helpful to the economy and the country. But then you can also start curating policies and ideas to take to the country and give them a really clear, affirming choice of which direction they want to go as a nation.

And so, I’m a think tank guy now. I’m over at the American Enterprise Institute. We put this big book together with 19 scholars and specifically, it’s meant to really get the debate going.

How do you get American Renewal? How do you get people out of poverty, restore upward mobility, keep liberty and freedom alive? And how do you avoid debt crisis in this country? This is the direction we’re on. We’re heading towards that place. We know it and so what can you do to prevent that from happening? What can you do to make sure that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency?

And so, that’s what this book lays out. It lays out program by program, reform by reform, how we would use conservative principles and apply them to these problems.

Deseret News: Is there still room for Paul Ryan’s ideas in the Republican Party?

 In 2022, the members of Congress elected as part of the GOP’s “thin” Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives will need to decide if they are going to go the way of Trump or Ryan as they choose what policies they want to try to tackle before the 2024 elections. 

Ryan is betting the GOP is still open to his small-c conservative message. He just helped write a book, along with 18 mostly American Enterprise Institute scholars, titled American Renewal. They make the case that conservatives should rein in spending in Washington D.C. — including by making changes to Medicare and Social Security. 

“America emerged from the 20^th century as the world’s sole superpower. We created a material prosperity that the world had never seen before,” he said at the book launch event at the institute on Thursday. “But we are now facing enormous political and economic challenges, both from within and without.”

Real Clear Politics: Ryan: Entitlement reform ‘not as toxic’ as it used to be

Barely a week after Republicans historically underperformed in the midterm elections, Ryan reports that he remains “optimistic,” even calling himself “a happy warrior.” In an interview with RealClearPolitics, he said that federal fiscal problems are “totally and utterly solvable.”

America need not suffer “a lost generation” of anemic growth and stagnant prosperity, according to Ryan and more than a dozen center-right scholars. They have a plan: A book of white papers “to strengthen the social contract and save the country’s finances.” To avoid the aforementioned Armageddon, Ryan told RCP, the country just needs to “summon the political will and know how to get over this hump…..”

“I’m not too worried about the politics of entitlement reform. What people should be worried about is the politics of ducking entitlement reform,” he said, “and then precipitating a debt crisis, where you have ugly austerity economics on top of those entitlements.”

Leaving these programs as they are, he said, “is the irresponsible thing.” Proposing reforms that “make these programs work better and make this social contract more durable and reliable,” he added, “is not a hard sale.”

For a policy wonk like Ryan, who brought graphs and spreadsheets to press conferences, that kind of salesmanship comes naturally. Three years removed from Congress, the Wisconsin Republican says “the country is yearning for something better.” Now a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, he said that “this is the perfect time for the center-right movement to get back into the ‘Ideas Factory’ and start curating ideas and policies to take to the country, to win a mandate, and to solve our problems.”

Fox News: Ryan Policy Volume: US must catch up to China’s digital currency capability in order to ‘lead the world’:

“American Renewal: A Conservative Plan to Strengthen the Social Contract and Save the Country’s Finances” outlines solutions to America’s emerging fiscal crisis that is “entirely of its own making.” It features policy prescriptions from 19 scholars, mostly from the American Enterprise Institute, and is aimed at pushing concrete solutions that Congress can enact before the country is engulfed in a “debt catastrophe.”

Ryan, R-Wis., told Fox News Digital in an interview ahead of the book’s release that it was “designed to prevent America from going down the path of a debt crisis and losing the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.”

“If we lose the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, it will massively inflict fiscal and monetary damage to our country. It will make it harder for us to finance our government, our social safety net and our economy, frankly, because interest rates will be much higher,” he said. “The fiscal policies in this book are proposals designed to fix these programs so that they’re reliable and solvent and that they don’t go into a debt crisis….”

“If America wants to maintain its place as the keeper of the reserve currency of the world, which gives us huge privileges and advantages as a country, then we too should digitize our dollar so that we have the attributes of a digital dollar, which is frictionless money, which is much more efficient money,” he told Fox News Digital. “But more importantly, show the world how a free society should handle this challenge by having a two-tier system which guarantees the government has no role in the management of our money. Because the Chinese, the way they will manage money, violate privacy and liberty.”