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In The News

At Brookings Institution, Ryan discusses the future of U.S. tax policy

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By: AIF Staff

Washington, DC – Last week, the Brookings Institution hosted a policy event with The Hamilton Project where AIF President Paul Ryan and former Congressional Budget Office Director Peter Orzag shared their thoughts on the future of U.S. tax policy with the Washington Post’s Katherine Rampell. With a significant number of provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act set to expire at the end of next year and with economic growth lagging, Orzag and Ryan discussed how both parties can identify common ground when it comes to tax policies.

Video of the panel conversation with Ryan, Orzag, and Rampell is accessible here. A summary of the day’s events can be accessed at this link and excerpts from Ryan’s comments, edited lightly for clarity, follow.

Ryan on why certain parts of the Tax Cuts & Jobs Act are temporary & some are permanent:

“First of all, we wrote our budget resolution to the current policy baseline that [Peter Orzag] just described. The current policy rolled over with the fiscal cliff deal that Boehner and Obama did. And then, Kevin Brady and I decided that we would make permanent that which we thought, for economic reasons and for political reasons, needed to be made permanent – like the corporate rate and the territorial system. We made temporary that which we thought had a better chance of withstanding an extension under any conceivable political arrangement in the future – like the individual income tax provisions, expensing, section 199. So, we made temporary what we thought could get extended and we made permanent what we thought might not get extended and what we wanted to keep permanent.”

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“We wanted to convert from a worldwide system to a territorial system and get our rates down to globally competitive rates. If you throw in the average 4.8% state and local rate, we’re basically in the middle of the pack, which is where we wanted to be. And we knew that inversion decisions were happening at larger companies and so, we wanted to make sure the companies who were, at the time, seeking to redomicile never thought about doing that again and that inversions would stop. So, we really believed for economic reasons that we needed to make [these provisions] permanent — the reduction in the corporate rate and the conversion over to a territorial system. We also thought that should we have, say, divided government or lose control of all three of the House, the Senate, and the White House, that it would be easy for the corporate rate to snap back up and it would be very bad for our economy. So, we made that permanent.”

Ryan on how our big fiscal issues will ‘break’ and spur reform:

“I would like to think we can have a better tax system than the one we have today without hurting GDP growth. Frankly, I’m very worried about it. Look, the Congressional Budget Office is telling us we’re going to grow at 1.3% for the next 30 years. That’s mostly a labor force participation point, but I’d like to do some things that can get that [growth] line up. What I don’t want to do is gravitate toward a tax policy that’s going to lower that line…

“If we can get tax reform, entitlement reform, and immigration reform, that combination could be a pretty damn good thing for economic growth in this country. We have terrible politics that are preventing that from happening right now, but all three of those issues are going to break. At least, that’s the way I’ve seen it happen based on my 25 years on the Hill — 20 as a Member of 5 as a staffer.”

“Issues break and they seem intractable until that happens, but these issues are going to break. I don’t know exactly when, but they’re going to break…. And when I say break, I mean break as in they’re going to get to such a point that we just have to do something about it. And that does happen.

“I think that’s going to happen on immigration. I think it’s definitely going to happen on entitlements because of the trust funds. And I think it can happen on tax reform and on carbon.”

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At UW-Madison, Ryan discusses evidence-based approaches to economic growth, bridging the partisan divide, and lessons from two decades in Congress

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By: AIF Staff

Madison, WI — On Tuesday, September 26th, former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan was a featured guest at UW-Madison’s La Follette School of Public Affairs as part of the University’s Policymaker in Residence program. Ryan, who represented Southern Wisconsin for two decades in the House of Representatives, had an hour-long discussion with the UW-Madison community about ongoing fiscal fights in Congress, the increasing polarization in American politics, and his recently released book, American Renewal: A Conservative Plan to Strengthen the Social Contract and Save the Country’s Finances.

The conversation, moderated by UW Madison’s Susan Yackee, is accessible here.

While on campus in Madison, Ryan conducted a number of interviews and talked about a possible government shutdown, the 2024 Presidential election, and efforts to grow the American economy. Excerpts of those interviews follow.  

PBS Wisconsin:  Paul Ryan on America’s political landscape going into 2024; policies to stimulate growth

 “In the short term, I think you don’t want to do anything to feed more inflation. I think you want to make sure that we don’t stifle innovation with overregulation from government agencies and I think tax policy, you have a lot of the tax code, particularly taxes affecting small businesses, that are expiring in 2025. If we could give businesses certainty that their taxes aren’t going to go up dramatically, that would help a lot of long-term planning.

“Over the long term, we’ve got to get our debt under control and that means we have to deal with the majority of government funding that is not in these annual appropriation bills. Those are our entitlement programs. Our social contract is very important. It provides us a safety net for the poor and health and retirement security for most Americans but it was written in the 20th century in ways that are proving unsustainable in the 21st century. So, we need comprehensive reforms of these programs so that they can continue and so that they don’t bankrupt our country.

“If we have a debt crisis in this country, everybody gets hurt, especially the people who are living paycheck to paycheck, the least among us. So, long-term, Congress needs to fix our fiscal imbalance, our fiscal debt crisis that’s coming but right now, our politics are so unserious. We’re just not even close to solving those problems, unfortunately.”

NBC-15: Ryan says Republicans will lose if Donald Trump is nominee

In an interview with NBC-15’s Mark McPherson, former Speaker Paul Ryan detailed his thoughts on a looming government shutdown and the 2024 election.

Channel3000: Ryan on 2024 election, redistricting and getting behind the wheel of the Wienermobile

“When I was House Budget Chair, [Washington Democratic Sen.] Patty Murray and I did two budget agreements to get past the sequester in the 2013-2015 era. Look, we have divided government. This is the reality that a lot of members — no, I shouldn’t say a lot of members — this is the reality that a few members do not want to acknowledge. You have divided government. The House is Republican, the Senate is Democrat, the President is a Democrat. That means you have to work together to find a compromise to get through these moments.

“I think Speaker McCarthy did a really good job with President Biden on the debt limit deal, getting a good compromise, reaching budget totals that they’re going to spend to, and now executing it. Well, a small minority of Republicans, against the will of a majority of Republicans, didn’t like that and are trying to derail that, and regrettably, I think that will lead to a government shutdown.

“But at the end of the day, I think the speaker is going to honor that deal. So yes, I know exactly what Kevin is going through, I’ve been through the same kinds of moments before. They’re frustrating, but we’re going to get through this. We’re going to get through this.

“A government shutdown is not like a debt limit default. It’s very different as far as its effects on the economy. It’s far different, far less acute than, say, a default. I do believe that they will get the government funded at the end of the day, but it’s going to be a bumpy road between now and then.”

A recap of the coverage from Ryan’s engagement at the La Follette School of Public Affairs follow.

  • Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: ‘It can’t get any worse’: Paul Ryan laments state of GOP under Trump but remains ‘bullish’ on future
  • Badger Herald: Ryan visits UW to discuss public policy 
  • Daily Cardinal: Ryan discusses partisan divide, Trump electability in UW-Madison visit
  • Spectrum News: Former Speaker Paul Ryan talks political divides, 2024 presidential race during UW-Madison visit
  • Associated Press: Former Speaker Paul Ryan says Republicans will lose if Donald Trump is nominee
  • Cap Times: Ryan predicts government shutdown, hits Trump at UW event
  • WKOW: ‘We lose with this guy’: Paul Ryan talks about Trump and the possible government shutdown

Click here to download a copy of American Renewal: A Conservative Plan to Strengthen the Social Contract and Save the Country’s Finances. 

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Pittsburgh Post Gazette: Zito: Real solutions need real principles, according to Paul Ryan

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Following a site visit to Brigid’s Path, a recovery center for newborns and their mothers suffering from substance abuse disorders, in Kettering, Ohio. American Idea Foundation President Paul Ryan spoke with the Pittsburgh Post Gazette’s Salena Zito about his efforts to help front-line organizations combat poverty and promote upward mobility.

The full article is available here and excerpts are included below.

Pittsburgh Post Gazette: Zito: Real solutions need real principles, according to Paul Ryan

By: Salena Zito

KETTERING, Ohio — Some on the left depict Paul Ryan as a man who would throw Grandma off the cliff because he supported restructuring entitlement programs to keep them from defaulting. Some on the right depict him as a RINO (Republican In Name Only) for his distaste for Donald J. Trump.

Mr. Ryan, the Speaker of the House from 2015 to 2019, said he is steadfast in his belief that conservative fiscal responsibility is the best way to lift people out of poverty and that Trump has become what he feared he always was….

Politics with principle

I spoke with Mr. Ryan while he was visiting Brigid’s Path, the first in-patient newborn recovery center in Ohio. Some of his critics mistake his quiet demeanor for aloofness. But those who have interacted with him realize his demeanor is a direct result of a man determined to conduct a life of purpose. He would agree that his choices haven’t always been perfect, but that doesn’t stop him from trying to continue to get it right.

Part — but not all — of the populism running through the Republican Party right now is populism without a principle, he said. “It’s wrapped around a personality.”

There has to be principle — which brings us back to Brigid’s Path. It’s a cheerfully-painted but unassuming building so fully surrounded by an industrial park that it is easy to miss.

The first thing Mr. Ryan heard as he walked into the lobby were the gentle sounds of babies — lots of babies. The Janesville, Wis., native and father of three smiled broadly and headed toward the rooms where nurses were cuddling and monitoring newborns suffering from neonatal abstinence syndrome, which is a result of babies having been exposed to drugs prior to birth.

Mr. Ryan spent several hours touring the facility with local community leaders and Ohio U.S. Reps. Mike Turner and Brad Wenstrup, as they discussed the facility’s impact serving young mothers — and their infants — caught in the rising tide of opioid addiction. Sitting in the conference room at Brigid’s Place, Mr. Ryan was dressed casually, with comfortable shoes — no tie, no entourage.

Mr. Ryan was visibly moved by the infants he saw and had a powerful back-and-forth with a mother during a roundtable with stakeholders after the tour. Accompanied by her precocious and now healthy 18-month-old daughter, the mother candidly discussed her journey from addiction, to prison, to bringing her then-infant here 18 months ago.

Her answers to Mr. Ryan’s questions were so raw and frank that a pin drop would have shattered the hush.

Work on poverty

“I’ve been spending the better part of my adult life on poverty issues,” Mr. Ryan explained afterward. His involvement began with his work with former HUD Secretary Jack Kemp and continued as a member of Congress.

Mr. Ryan said he traveled — without fanfare, incognito — to high-crime and drug-infested neighborhoods with civil rights activist Bob Woodson in order to understand from the ground up what drove the despair. “Woodson told me at the time it was a commitment — not a drive-up, drop-in. When I went, I went for the duration,” he said. “It gave me a clear-eyed understanding of the roots of poverty, as well as the impact.”

It’s the vocation he said he has chosen since he has retired: “I do other things, but this foundation I founded, the American Idea Foundation, helps fund remarkable places like this place here to scale and replicate those poverty programs elsewhere.”

Mr. Ryan is also an adjunct professor at Notre Dame. “I work particularly at their laboratory for economic opportunity, where we run randomized control trials on promising poverty programs,” Mr. Ryan said, adding that his original love was the field of economics….

The sweet spot

Mr. Ryan said his sweet spot on making a difference in the world is mixing empathy and compassion with data. “That is why I’m a conservative. I believe in the role of civil society. I believe in the role that communities have, and I believe in the role of personal responsibility, upper mobility and people helping each other. Catholics, we call it subsidiarity.”

Mr. Ryan said it is something he has always taken to heart: “It is the most effective philosophy to doing the most good for the most people, and it’s the best way for society to govern itself.”

That’s a big reason he wants to get beyond Mr. Trump. Only then, “the Republican Party can heal and actually start winning elections and stopping the progressives from screwing up our country.” He noted the Republican losses in 2018, 2020 and 2021.

“The irony of all of this is Joe Biden and Donald Trump have a symbiotic relationship with one another,” he said. “They need each other to make the best case for their candidacies — and yet the vast majority of Americans do not want a rematch.”

And he’s not wrong. A series of national polls — including a recent survey done by the New York Times/Siena — shows voters are wary of a replay of 2020 and would prefer options other than Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden.

Maybe an option that puts principle over personality.